All operators in the tourism supply chain, starting from hospitality, restaurant and intermediation businesses, up to the activities involved secondarily in the sector, are trying to understand when tourism will restart. They are carefully following the evolution of the health situation to see improvements, decreases in infections, mirages of a return to normality, knowing that blocking travel is not the only obstacle to overcome.
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Travel Restrictions
Travel restrictions certainly represent the main reason that prevents us from buying a ticket and leaving, but the fear of contagion has a strong impact on the traveller's sense of safety: concern for personal health will have a major impact on when and where the flows will return and, generally speaking, tourists will try to avoid notoriously crowded places in favor destinations less known, seeking guarantees of health care in accommodation facilities. Furthermore, it must be considered that although tourism is increasingly becoming a primary consumer good, the worsening of the economic condition will lead many families to give up holidays.
The digital traces of the tourist
Especially in this period, therefore, it has become important to have data available that allow us to listen to the moods of demand, better understand the travellers' intentions and try to outline future trends: analysts, research bodies, trade unions, institutions of various kinds are trying to collect as much information as possible, both through traditional sample surveys and by reading the digital tracks that the tourist leaves on the web. Tourists are unwitting producers of big data: they visit sites, check prices, check availability in hotels and do not know that all this information becomes a rich source of raw data.
Given that it is not possible to travel at the moment (and we don't even know when we will return to doing so), most of the data comes from the preliminary phases of the trip which precede the actual experience, i.e. the dreaming phase: users get inspired, plan, get informed, choose new ones mete. The data that manages to intercept the traces of tourists in this phase are important because they make us understand the interest of travelers and their state of confidence towards the future: even during the worst moments of the pandemic, for example, travelers have never stopped researching and planning their trips.
Travel mood in 2020
Analyzing search data flights planes, coming from the first metasearch international by number of users, it emerges that tourists from all over the world continued to search flights to reach Italy but confidence has inevitably wavered in the face of events: while in January searches were stable, in line with the usual trend, the news of the first infections in Italy (21-27 February) had a significant impact strong. As uncertainty about the future increased, within three weeks searches dropped by 62% and, with the start of the lockdown, by 91%.
Only with the beginning of Fase 2 and the reduction of restrictions, tourists started planning their trips again, with even more positive rates of change with the start of Phase 3. However, it was a limited and temporary increase: despite the health situation having improved in the summer , Italians preferred to go on holiday by traveling little, for a few days and choosing private transport, while foreign tourism was almost completely absent. In autumn, the explosion of the second wave in European countries reignited travellers' concern, until it also hit Italy in October: searches collapsed again, by 65% in the space of a month. The fluctuating trend of searches fully reflects the mood of travellers, who reacted with hope to the announcement of the Pfizer vaccine (+19,8% in three weeks) and then with despair after the entry into force of the Christmas Prime Ministerial Decree (- 26,9%) and the confirmation of new restrictions after January 6 (-4,2%).
As emerges from the data, travellers' interest in Italy currently follows a negative trend and reflects the sense of insecurity and mistrust in the future: active users are at a minimum and searches in the last month are only 15% compared to at the same time last year.
We know, however, that people are eager to travel again and demand actively reacts to the good news: the reduction of restrictions, the improvement in infections and vaccinations will be the starting point for planning our holidays again.
Posted in Digital Travel
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